Global Economy Stalls: OECD Predicts Meagre 2.9% Growth Due to Trade Barriers
Parijs, woensdag, 4 juni 2025.
The international economic organisation OECD has issued a concerning forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026. With an expected growth of only 2.9%, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, the organisation points to the destructive impact of trade barriers and increasing economic uncertainty. The United States is hit hardest, with anticipated economic growth halved to 1.6% in 2025. President Trump’s trade tariffs are proving to be a significant brake on economic dynamics, resulting in declining consumer confidence and rising import costs. This prognosis underscores the vulnerability of the global economy to protectionist measures and geopolitical tensions.
Global Economic Growth Slowdown
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) adjusted its economic outlook for 2025 and 2026 last Tuesday, estimating global economic growth at just 2.9% [1][2]. This forecast marks the lowest growth expectation since the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating significant economic challenges worldwide [3].
Impact on the United States
The United States is being hit hardest by this economic slowdown, with expected growth having fallen from 2.8% to just 1.6% in 2025 [1][2]. The OECD attributes this downward revision primarily to trade barriers and tariff measures introduced by President Trump [4]. The effective tariff rate in the US has risen from 2% to 15.4%, the highest level since 1938 [2].
Global Economic Uncertainty
Álvaro Pereira, OECD’s chief economist, emphasises the significant increase in trade barriers and economic uncertainty [2]. These developments are expected to negatively impact business and consumer confidence, which is likely to slow trade and investments [3][4]. The organisation warns that economic prospects have been revised downwards for nearly every country [5].
International Economic Perspectives
While the US struggles with economic headwinds, other countries show varying growth patterns. Spain remains relatively strong with an expected growth of 2.4% in 2025 [6], while Germany anticipates only 0.4% economic growth [7]. China maintains stable growth around 4.5% [8].